Posted by shiny on November 04, 2026 at 18:16 · 2 min read and edited at November 04, 2026 at 18:36

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El Niño has already arrived. Earth Sciences NZ (formerly NIWA) declared it on 2 July, and it has strengthened fast since. By mid-August the central Pacific reading was 2.48°C above average, and the event has a good chance of becoming the strongest on record. Earth Sciences NZ puts the chance of it continuing through the rest of 2026 at 100%.

What to expect in our gardens

Aotearoa gets stronger and more frequent southwesterly to northwesterly winds during an El Niño, and rainfall tends to split the country. The north and east of Te Ika-a-Māui and Te Waipounamu usually go drier, while Murihiku and Te Tai Poutini get wetter. Summer brings the risk of drought, very hot days and wildfire.

For those of us in Te Whanganui-a-Tara, that means wind, sun and dry soil.

What I’m doing about it

  • Mulch heavily. Mulch is the cheapest insurance against dry soil.
  • Water deeply and early. A good soak in the morning beats a daily sprinkle.
  • Catch what rain we get. Tanks and buckets will earn their keep.
  • Protect from wind. Stake tall crops and use windbreaks on exposed beds.
  • Shade the tender stuff. Shade cloth helps lettuce and brassicas through the hot days.
  • Favour sun lovers. Tomatoes, beans, capsicums and herbs should do well if they get enough water.

Not every strong El Niño delivers textbook weather, and impacts vary from place to place. Watch your own patch and keep an eye on the monthly Seasonal Climate Outlook from Earth Sciences NZ.

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